Potential Predictors of Reoffense in Offenders in a Transitional Case Management Program

Victoria M Allen, Fordham University


Individuals with mental illness are overrepresented in the criminal justice system, and those with severe mental illness (SMI) are also more likely to reoffend than individuals without mental illness. Therefore, there is a need to identify high risk individuals and reliable predictors of rearrest to reduce recidivism in individuals with SMI. There remain important gaps in research studying how various comorbid conditions impact recidivism in individuals with SMI participating in a transitional case management program. In the current study, data on reentry services received, clinical diagnosis, and substance abuse disorders were evaluated for 218 offenders with SMI participating in the Brooklyn/Staten Island Community Re-entry Assistance Network (CRAN) transitional case management program to determine whether these factors were predictors of reoffense. Overall, reentry services received were found to be significantly associated with both rearrest (p = .002) and felony rearrest (p = .05). More specifically, while reentry services received in the CRAN subgroup were not significantly associated with reoffense in regression models, other reentry services received at another facility (the ORS subgroup) were significantly associated with lower rates of reoffense for both rearrest (OR = 5.88, p = .02) and felony rearrest (OR = 5.88, p = .04), when the regression models controlled for total months tracked and included reentry services received, substance abuse, and the 2-way interaction term. Further, individuals with no known reentry services were nearly six times more likely to be rearrested and to commit a felony than those in the ORS subgroup, but no more likely to reoffend than participants in the CRAN subgroup. Diagnoses of a psychotic mental disorder and substance abuse were not significant predictors of either rearrest or felony rearrest. These results provide preliminary insight into how reentry services can impact the likelihood of reoffense for criminal offenders with SMI. More research is needed to further define the factors that influence recidivism in a larger sample, so that interventions can be appropriately tailored to better assist individuals with SMI.

Subject Area

Psychology|Law|Public policy

Recommended Citation

Allen, Victoria M, "Potential Predictors of Reoffense in Offenders in a Transitional Case Management Program" (2020). ETD Collection for Fordham University. AAI27959023.