Date of Award
Spring 2023
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science (BS)
Advisor(s)
Kevin Mirabile
Abstract
This thesis investigates the accuracy of target prices during extreme market conditions influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, comparing the bullish market of 2021 and the bearish market of 2022. Utilizing regression analysis on data from Bloomberg, the study examines how stock prices aligned with analysts' target prices across various sectors. Findings suggest that target prices were more reliable during the bull market of 2021 than in the turbulent bear market of 2022, where frequent adjustments were necessary. This discrepancy highlights the challenges analysts face in predicting stock performance under volatile conditions and suggests a need for more adaptable forecasting models. The research indicates that the precision of target prices is generally unaffected by sector differences during these periods. These insights underscore the importance for financial analysts to consider broader economic indicators and refine their methods in response to market instability. This study contributes to financial forecasting literature by demonstrating the limitations of current target price accuracy in volatile markets and advocating for enhanced analytical techniques.
Recommended Citation
Weringh, Lois Van, "The accuracy and reliability of target prices during extreme volatility" (2023). Gabelli School of Business Honors Thesis Collection. 8.
https://research.library.fordham.edu/gabelli_thesis/8
